Since the very beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland has acted not only as a key military and political partner for Ukraine but also as the primary transit hub through which the country receives Western weaponry. Russia has tried by all possible means to disrupt Europe’s provision of weapons to Ukraine in order to deprive it of the ability to defend itself, though to no avail. Understanding the impossibility of preventing support for Ukraine, the Kremlin is considering various escalation scenarios that involve conducting hybrid influence operations against one or several NATO countries, among which Poland could be included.
On July 9, 2026, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated at a joint press conference with his French counterpart that, according to available information, the Russians are planning to conduct hybrid influence measures targeting Poland. The issue was raised against the backdrop of Western media reports that Russia is considering potential attacks on NATO facilities. Notably, just prior to this, the United States officially warned Warsaw about a high risk of Russia conducting such operations against Poland itself.
The Kremlin possesses a wide arsenal of hybrid influence measures, which include information and psychological operations, hacker attacks, sabotage, terrorist acts, and limited military intervention, including “false flag” provocations.
Poland has long been an object of intense focus for Russian intelligence services and agencies engaged in influence operations within the information space. The significant interest in the country is driven by Poland’s active participation in providing military aid to Ukraine, the principled stance of its government supporting the international isolation of Russia, and—most importantly—due to the substantial polarization of society and the political establishment around the “Ukrainian issue.”
Experts are considering various options and levels of hybrid escalation against Poland. One of them (and the mildest) is the intensification of informational pressure and interference, which would be carried out through right-wing radical and ultra-nationalist movements, whose individual leaders have proven ties to Russia and its intelligence services. For years, Russian intelligence has been cultivating a network of “agents of influence” in Poland who retransmit Russian propaganda narratives and virtually call for the cessation of support for Ukraine, thereby destroying European unity from within while presenting it all under the pretext of “protecting national interests.”
In the most severe scenario, options are being considered that involve the use of targeted drone strikes on Polish energy facilities and logistics hubs involved in weapon supplies, as well as the simulation of massive air raids using “decoy” drones to force Warsaw to urgently reveal its air defense positions and deplete scarce anti-aircraft missiles. A limited ground invasion by Russian units from the direction of Kaliningrad or Belarus is also deemed possible, which the Kremlin could disguise, for example, as a “navigation error due to a GPS malfunction” or a “search and rescue mission.” Provocations and “false flag” operations—for instance, carried out on behalf of Ukraine to discredit it—are not ruled out either.
Given the inevitability of invoking NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense, such a scenario is excessively risky for the Kremlin and would carry catastrophic consequences for it.
The Kremlin’s primary calculation is that a hybrid operation would lead to an even greater political split within Poland, causing the country to refrain from a military response and halt its support for Ukraine. The Kremlin is also betting that Polish radical nationalist parties will pressure the government to accept Russian conditions, thereby assisting the Russian Federation in achieving its objectives. However, despite the existing pressure, Prime Minister Donald Tusk reassured on July 7, 2026, that aid to Ukraine will continue regardless of internal political disagreements.
The very fact that aggressive scenarios of hybrid interference are being considered is explained by the widespread conviction within Vladimir Putin’s inner circle that NATO will refrain from escalating the confrontation with Russia, and that the strength and unity of the bloc’s nations should be tested. Ultimately, the final decision regarding a hybrid operation against Poland or the Baltic states will be made by the Kremlin, taking into account the current geopolitical situation and the dynamics of unfolding events. Russia is demonstrating a readiness for escalation both on the battlefield in Ukraine and in its confrontation with Western countries, which demands maximum consolidation and a demonstration of readiness from Poland and its Western allies to repel Russian aggression.